With a slew of superhero movies set to arrive later this year, 20th Century Fox’sDeadpoolhas already set the bar incredibly high forbox officeexpectations. Despite, or perhaps because of, its R-rated nature,Deadpooldestroyed several box office records, taking in $135 million in its opening weekend, the highest opening weekend for any R-rated movie and the best debut ever for a 20th Century Fox movie. Heading into its second frame, this unconventional superhero movie squares off against three new releases, Focus Features' biopicRace, Sony’s drama Risen and A24’s critically-acclaimed horror-thrillerThe Witch, none of which stand a chance of taking down the Merc With the Mouth.
While the opening weekend numbers are obviously of critical importance to any movie’s success, the second weekend often indicates how much longevity a film may have in theaters. WithDeadpoolstill riding high on plenty of critical buzz (84% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and positive word-of-mouth, we’re estimating that theMerc With the Mouthwill easily retain the top spot this weekend with roughly $70 million, which is more than enough to take down these three newcomers, according to the projections atPro.BoxOffice.com. Risen is expected to open in second place with $11.5 million, followed byKung Fu Panda 3in third place with $11.1 million,Racein fourth place with $10 million andHow to Be Singlerounding out the top 5 with $9.8 million.
After receiving a slew ofpositive reviews, with an 84% “Fresh” Rotten Tomatoes rating,Deadpoolshattered the record for highest grossing R-rated opening weekend of $91.7 million, held for 13 years byThe Matrix Reloaded. It also brokeFifty Shades of Grey’s February record of $85.1 million, along with its four-day President’s Day weekend record ($93 million), the record for highest-grossing R-rated comic book adaptation (300, $70.8 million), largest winter opening weekend (American Sniper, $89.2 million) and it became the biggest opening ever for 20th Century Fox, surpassing 2005’sStar Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sithrecord of $108.4 million.
It’s also worth noting that, last month, early projections predicted the highly-anticipatedBatman v Superman: Dawn of Justicewill earn $154 million on its opening weekend, and that’s with a PG-13 rating and two of the most beloved heroes on the planet featured in the same movie. Obviously, those numbers could, and most likely will, change, especially sinceDeadpool’s early projections put it between $55 million and $60 million. Still, forDeadpoolto earn so much with the restrictive R rating, opening higher than all of the otherX-Menmovies, could provide a wake-up call to studios that may lead to more R-rated superhero movies.
The faith-based drama Risen tells the epic New Testament story of the first forty days after the Resurrection ofJesus Christthrough the eyes of an agnostic Roman Centurion charged by Pontius Pilate to investigate rumors of a risen Jewish Messiah and locate the missing deceased body of Jesus of Nazareth in order to subdue an imminent uprising in Jerusalem. The film boasts an impressive cast includingTom Felton,Joseph Fiennes,Cliff Curtisand Stephen Greif. Kevin Reynolds writes and directs his first film in a decade, following 2006’sTristan & Isolde.
Raceis based on the incredible true story of Jesse Owens (Stephan James), the legendary athletic superstar whose quest to become the greatest track and field athlete in history thrusts him onto the world stage of the 1936 Olympics, where he faces off against Adolf Hitler’s vision of Aryan supremacy.Raceis an enthralling film about courage, determination, tolerance, and friendship, and an inspiring drama about one man’s fight to become an Olympic legend.Jason Sudeikis,Jeremy Irons,Carice van Houten,Amanda Crew,William Hurtheadline a stellar cast in this true storybiopic, directed by Stephen Hopkins.
Rounding out the top 10 this weekend will be newcomerThe Witch($7.5 million),Zoolander 2($6.8 million),The Revenant($5.1 million),Hail, Caesar!($3.9 million) andStar Wars: The Force Awakens($3 million). While no Rotten Tomatoes scores are posted yet for Risen andRace,The Witchhas an impressive 87% RT score, wowing critics on the festival circuit all last year after debuting at Sundance. The story is set in the early 1600s, decades before the Salem Witch Trials, centering on an English farmer who relocates his family to a plot of land on the edge of a forest, where a supernatural presence is said to lurk. NewcomerAnya Taylor-Joystars as the farmer’s teenager daughter Thomasin, who has been accused of being a witch in this shocking thriller from writer-directorRobert Eggers. Also opening in limited release is Embrace of the Serpent, Neerja and Busco Novio Para Mi Mujer.
Looking ahead to next weekend, three new movies will head to theaters, 20th Century Fox’s true story adaptationEddie the Eagle, Lionsgate’s action-thrillerGods of Egyptand Open Road Films' crime thrillerTriple 9. Also opening in limited release isCrouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny, which will also debut simultaneously on Netflix, a re-issue of Akira Kurosawa’s Ran andTere Bin Laden - Dead Or Alive. Take a look at the projected top 10 for this weekend, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates.
